Bright Market Insight (BMI) Pulp

Calejo offers a dedicated forecast model for pulp (NBSK) based on artificial neural networks (ANN). The Calejo model stands out for its inclusion of large quantities of fundamental data and allows for the frequencies of market fluctuations. This makes it unique in the commodity market.

The forecast is emailed out and can also be viewed on Calejo’s website with logon and password. The forecasts are updated once a month as new data is received.

In the forecasts so far produced by Calejo the proportion of correct price trends is approximately 80 percent for all time horizons over six months. For purposes of comparison we can state that the price is rising 58 percent of the time looking 12 months ahead. Thus the model can identify whether the price will rise or fall in up to 80-85 percent of the cases relative to long-term forecasts. Looking 24 months ahead, the forecast lies very close to actual price evolution.

All results shown have been cross validated, which entirely compensates for the effects of any over-interpretation of results. This involves data quantities being divided up into time periods, each of 1½-2 years. The results have then been simulated for each time period using a model based entirely on data from the other time periods. The graphs shown are the result of combining the tests for each individual time period and thus represent the expected results of entirely new data.

Cross validation is an extremely strict test, which few statistical models can manage. The tests also completely reflects the difficulty of making forecasts of the future based solely on historical data. Therefore we do not expect results to be overestimated due to over-interpretation.

Bright Market Insight (BMI)

At the moment Calejo offers forecasting services for the pulp (BMI Pulp) and timber (BMI Timber) markets.

For more information about BMI Pulp: BMI Pulp Evaluation.pdf

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